Thursday, March 08, 2007

Will Hill Grand Prix

Just watched my heat. As it was a fair few months since i played it i had forgotten most of the action on the table. Keith was really unlucky in the hand against me but it played itself. Once Yusuf had minimum raised by mistake after a ruling from Thomas Kremser. I don't think i had any option but to push because Keith hadn't showed any particular strength, and Yusuf clearly didn't want to raise in the first place.

I didn't seem to get involved in too much bluffing, and played a bit too tight. It was my first TV tournament, other than final tables in multis, so i was probably not at my best.

If i had won the final hand with the KK v Q2 on a 239 flop against Antonio, i would have had 20000 chips to 60000, which would have given me at least a chance. Overall though the player who played the best won though, simple as that!

Both of the articles i have written for Cardplayer Europe are here if anyone is interested.


Deal'em said...

Hi. I just read your second article over at Cardplayer. Is it correct to view this situation in terms of "profit" rather than just breakeven percentage on picking up the full pot? It seems to me that your preflop bets are a sunk cost and therefore should not be backed out of the money to be won. The good news is your bluff hurdle rate drops to a rounded 40% :-)

As an aside, had a situation like this recently out of the small blind where all folds to me, I limp and big blind pops it. I felt he likely had the big pocket pair from prior play and called looking to either hit big or put this type of play into action.

Flop comes 10 6 4 rainbow and I actually have the 10 and 4. I bet pot, he raises and I put him in for the little he has left. He has KK...10....6! Oops. That hurdle was a wee bit higher than I anticipated.

Milkybarkid said...

Hi Deal-em

If i add the $450 as a sunk cost that would normally be written off, then i calculate you need to win more than 39% for it to be a profitable play.

If i work it out it that way, does that not mean i would have to add the preflop $450 to the total amount committed to the pot on a bluff in the calculation?

I'm confusing myself trying to get my head around it now.

Someone please help lol

Andy_Ward said...


Andy_Ward said...

Sorry about that Test comment, bin that if you like.

I think if you're betting $900 to win $1400 here you can just consider the bluff success rate required to be 900/2300. It doesn't matter how much of the pot was originally yours. The bluff/don't bluff decision is made on the flop. Pre-flop, your hand (KQQJ) presumably (I'm no Omaha expert) has enough value to call on hand strength alone.

I saw the WH heat today. Keith had described the hand to me before. In your shoes I might not have moved in because, in my experience, when this kind of thing happens, someone always gets fucked and it's usually not the guy who made the mistake. This time it was Keith.

Terrible ruling anyway (as it was described to me, Yusuf said "how much to call", was told 1400, and put 1400 in). In America, 9/10 directors would have taken the common sense decision to rule it a call. I don't know why Kremser is rated so highly as a TD myself. There are five better TDs running daily tournaments in Vegas alone.


Deal'em said...

You don't have to add the 450 to the flop bluff amount...apples and oranges. I think your calc is correct in the first paragraph of your response. No matter which way you consider it, the success rate should be quite a bit higher than your original rate if you pick your spots as you describe in the article. Keep those high limit omaha hands coming, I love those. Now if we could get GSN to broadcast a High Stake Poker-Omaha version, I would be one happy camper. Maybe you could get Gabe Kaplan's gig for the show. Thanks.

toyzzz said...

Having played dealers choice games for a few years i thought i was decent omaha player but online the game is a different ball game. Your articles are really helpful for me as i've been trying to figure out strong bluffing scenarios and i was making some bad mistakes.

Good stuff, keep it up Ben.

hennnerz said...

wahhooooo, your in the money in the EPT live on the net too. i am watching gl!

you should hear the commentary...