Monday, June 27, 2005

A bit of poker and a challenge

I managed to find myself in an internet cafe when the blondepoker tournament started a few days ago and it looked like fun. Lots of players i knew and 500 quid added to the prize pool. Well i lasted about 20 minutes. Blinds 15/30. I call in middle position with AJ and a player in late position makes it 90 to play and i call as does one other. Flop JJ6. All of my 2000 chips were in the middle on the flop (I'm not slowplaying this monster i thought) Opponent has 66. Whoops... glad that happened in a £10 tournament and not a biggie. Not sure if i could get away from that hand regardless of the situation.

Meanwhile i was playing on the $10/$20 PL Omaha. I wasn't playing my A game but most of my decisions were +EV but i soon found myself stuck for $5000. Oops all when i was meant to be on the beach in Cancun. Dammit.... solution? All in pre flop for $500 v five players and on a raggy looking board i made Aces up which won. I then called a preflop raise with 4566 double suited and it flopped 236 rainbow ( damn lucky flop) It all goes in on the flop against AA89 and i end up a few hundred dollars down but happy. Back to the beach.....

The Challenge

Just to add some interest to the updates from Vegas. Anyone who reads this has a chance of winning $100.

Here is how it works. As i said before i will be running a profit/loss on all games played in Vegas. Whoever gets closest to the final profit/loss for my 17 days there wins the cash.

Factors to consider:

I am staking myself in the $10000 PL Omaha and $1000 NL Holdem with rebuys.
I am sponsored for the $10000 NL Holdem main event.
Other than that it will be a variety of cash (Omaha and Dealers Choice) and a few of the daily tournaments at the Bellagio.

Its just a bit fun and i will take no offense at people estimating a $50000 loss. ;-)

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

My Guess: +$1750

Not sure if going first is a good tactic.

Martin

C Seager said...

-19000$ if the loss includes all event entries (including sponsored)

if not then +6000$ (no entry fees included)

Jonny said...

+$36,000

Good Luck!

Milkybarkid said...

Just to clarify the that as i do not pay the $10000 for the main event that it will not be included in the overall figure.

Tight End said...

-$17000

so as not to bokk you!

Matress said...

+$5
very best of luck.

Pinky said...

+$50,000

Anonymous said...

-$3000

Though i hope you win!

Adam O

Speedy G said...

Ben,

My guess is +$100, the amount you'll owe me at the end!

Baz

p.s. I found a poker chip from the set you brought up for the weekend in York. Do you want it back?

Chris C said...

$10k PL is going to be tough, so that's -$10k there. $1000 NLH will be a huge field so I'll knock another $2000 for entry and a rebuy. But as I'm feeling generous, I'll estimate $3000 up for the rest (mostly cash).

= -$9000.

PS. My Vegas Profit/Loss was +$125. ;-D

The Mouse said...

I reckon +60k. You've always been flukey.

Blu said...

place well in the $10K PLO and make me a genius

+190,000

Ross said...

Ben

As most have gone low end +$250,000. I'd hate to predict a loss get it right and have you stump up $100. Good luck

ps Saw your article in the Telegraph, is that a regular feature? Hold on article in the Telegraph poker has gone mainstream lol

MBK snr said...

Geez, Ben. I hope you do great, then you can buy me a new car !!

Tom Steuart-Feilding said...

$-14,000

OnTilt said...

Ok I'm going for $0

Good luck.

Hawkeye1976 said...

Good Luck Ben,

+ $76,450
Mainly due to the cash games.

Steve (Hawkeye1976)

Anonymous said...

+$3000

Tim G

Milkybarkid said...

Yeah the article in the Telegraph is a regular thing - every week on a Saturday!

Keep the guesses coming. Personally i hope Ross wins the $100 so far. Do i get to guess?

Chris C said...

Yes, but if you win, next nearest gets the money!

Chris C said...

And, re. the last Telegraph article:

If you are dumping all your chips in post flop, but before the turn, surely you should be working out your chances based on the probability of improving your hand in the next two cards rather than just the next one?

Beacuse with 12 outs, you've actually got a 45% chance of improving - which wouldn't make a difference to the decision in your example; but if you are calling 1000 and the pot is 3000, then your calculation says you haven't got pot odds, whereas I think you do.

Criticism over, you can get back to the predictions now...!

SpeedyG said...

Ben,

If Ross' guess is correct I reckon you can afford to give us all $100!! That would be nothing to a man of your means.

Baz

Lee said...

cock on cuz reckon you'll be $1500 up think we need a chat next time you're home !!!

Anonymous said...

-$5500

Steven Hammond

Valley G said...

I reckon you will either be up $1,000,000 or down $1,000,000. either way you'll be back working for HBOS :-) with Buckley and Ellison and Joss

1m up you'll work for fun, 1m down you'll work for cash

Anonymous said...

Chyna (guess who)

-$11111

Andrew Shapter said...

im gonna guess +7500

good luck at the 10k NLH event

Mel Lofthouse said...

I reckon tournaments you will be -$3000
but cash up +$12000

But you know I want u to win, get that bracelet

Mel Lofthouse

danmonkey said...

i'm sure its too late but i'm going for +18356.
Good luck!