Monday, November 27, 2006

Some Strategy

I don't write that much strategy on my blog, but i've started writing for Cardplayer, so i thought i may as well put it on my blog as well.

In a series of articles about bluffing in Omaha, I am going to look at situations where bluffing in Pot Limit Omaha very profitable. Many players follow a successful tight-aggressive strategy in Omaha, but the very best players I have faced bluff in more situations than you might think. I don't mean bluffing with the bare Ace when there is a flush on the board, because many people do that, but rather representing hands when you are able to put opponents on a range of potential holdings.

Sometimes the board will pair on the flop. In this article I will look at how bluffing in this situation can be very profitable. If you are able accurately to assess the situation, and to take advantage of it, you can take down some very big pots. The reason why bluffing on a paired board is often successful, is that most players will often not want to commit most or all of their stack with a high pair such as Aces or Kings.

For the purposes of this example, you are playing in a $10/$20 Pot Limit game with 5 opponents. Each opponent is playing $3000. One player limps in under the gun, you limp in the cut off with 889T double suited. The button makes it $100 to play. Both blinds fold. The limper and you both call. The flop comes 33J with no flush draw. It is unlikely, given the pre-flop raise, that any opponent has a 3 or JJ. So you can make a move on this kind of paired board. It is more risky to try and represent a good hand on a high paired board as it becomes more likely that one of your opponents will have made three of a kind or a full house.

There is now $330 in the pot. If your first opponent checks, and you bet, it's possible you could pick up the pot right away with a $230 profit. In fact, there are several ways in which you can win this pot. For instance, if everyone checks the flop, you could make a bet on the turn and probably win it then.

But one of the best ways to maximise your profit is to check to the original preflop raiser. They are more than likely to make a continuation bet on the flop with any high pair, or even on a complete bluff. Once your other opponent has folded, you can now make your move. If the button has bet $300, you could re-raise and probably win the pot there and then, or call (indicating strength) and make a move on the turn or the river.

Suppose you check to the button and he bets $300, I would recommend minimum raising him another $300. The purpose of this bet is to tempt him to call - he will often do this as he won't want to give away the pot on the cheap. You are also manipulating the pot and representing a big hand, to then bluff him out on the turn. But if he passes immediately to your minimum raise, you will have made a $530 profit.

Let's look at what happens if he calls. The pot would now be $1530. You and your opponent have each committed $700 out of your $3000 stack, so neither player is over-committed to the hand. Say the turn comes a 6. I would now recommend betting between 40-70% of the pot on the turn. If you bet the pot your opponent would pass more often. But, at the same time, it increases how often you need to win the pot to over 80%. In this example, I think you should bet around $750 into the pot. If you have assessed the situation and your opponent correctly, they will pass often enough for the play to be profitable in the long run.

You have committed $600 bluffing before your $750 bet on the turn. So you will have committed $1350 in total on the bluff. You do not include the $100 you put in before the flop because you would normally have given up on this hand when you missed the flop completely. There is $830 profit to be made if your opponent passes to your turn bet. Exactly how often your opponent would have to pass for this play to be profitable can be calculated as follows:

Total amount committed to pot on a bluff/potential profit = x x/x+1 x 100 = break even percentage

So for the example I have used so 1350/830 = 1.63 1.63/2.63 x 100 = 62%

So if the hand reached the turn, and it played out how I have described, you would need to win more than 62% of the time for it to worth making this kind of bluff. From my own experience, players will fold approximately 75% of the time on the turn if you have also taken account of the following factors:

- The size of your opponent's stack. It's no use trying this move if your opponent is short-stacked, or pot-committed.
- You must know that your opponent is capable of passing AA or KK in this situation. Some players will simply call you down.
- Don't try it if your opponent is on tilt. They will call you too often.
- Don't use the move too often. Players will start to catch on to what you are doing.

The last thing to look at is what you should do if your opponent calls your turn bet. The pot would now be $3030 and you would have $1550 left. Unless the miracle 8 comes on the river to give you a full house, I would normally give up the hand and check the river. If your opponent called on the turn in this kind of situation, they would probably also call your bet on the river.

Other Stuff

Rob Yong asked me to put in a link to join his new poker club in Nottingham. They need people to to prove demand to get a license from the magistrates court. It will be the most impressive poker club in Europe, and will stage big festivals. So even if you are based outside the UK its worth joining which you can do by clicking here.

I also played the biggest game i have ever played in last week. The $250/$500 NL Hold'em game on Betfair. I managed to have a couple of wins... but the size is just scary. Heads up (both have $25000) i make it $1750 with AQ and my opponent makes it $7000.. what to do now? The money involved is just too big so no more of that game for a while.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Betfair's Asian Poker Tour

Lots to update about. I played the main event in Singapore of Betfair's tournament. The venue is great, and more importantly the buffet has been awsome! I set out to play aggressive but not go out in level one again so i was tight by my standards.. folding Js9s under the gun!! I went up and down playing alot of pots. I was actually as low as 1300 at one point but actually felt ok for some reason. I managed to double up twice... once being very lucky. I then moved table with 7000 chips.

Blinds were 200/400 in level 6 so i was still in ok shape. I hit a nice card rush and nearly trebled up... after and all in and a button raise, i found JJ in the BB and called. Was against 44 and AJ and hit the case Jack for good measure. I then found Aces and raised in early position. Button called. Flop 872 and i bet 1000. He made it 2000. I called. Turn an Ace and he pushed with AQ. I think he was setting up to push any card with his minimum raise on the flop, so the ace probably gave him an extra incentive he needed.

I then started picking up quite a few small pots and my chip count was 35000... average about 18000. I find KK :-). Other guy at my table with a good stack around 30000 opens for 1200 quite early, one caller, i make it 4000 and original raiser goes all in. I call and he has the old A2 off. Two people passed an Ace, but there is still one on the turn. I would have been the chip leader if i won that, and he made the final. Though it seems like a dumb play by him, i guess i probably fold around 70% of hands i am reraising preflop there.

Other than that poker has been very up and down. These big stakes are all very well when things are going well, but when you hit a bad run of cards then it is very expensive and stressful, even in just a couple of days. Its tough to go back to playing alot lower than i have been though, and i tend not to play my A game... have to think about my strategy game wise for the next few months!

Thursday, November 09, 2006

200/400 PLO

Well i decided to give it a crack which you may have seen if you read the comments in the last blog. I had manage to spin my roll on full tilt up to a six figure sum so decided to give it a go. So far after 3 sessions and 1353 hands i am $129000 up. In a game that size its not a significant win, but as i decided to have a shot with a limited bankroll i'm happy to have made a good start. If i lose what i have on full tilt i'll go back to my normal games.

I actually think i have been running badly as well. Especially against David Benjamine. I have been playing the capped pot limit Omaha 200/400 as well, and in one session last night i played 6 capped pots against him (cap is set at $16000 so $32000 in every pot). In each of them when the money went in i was at least a 38% up to 71% chance to win and lost all 6. My tracker says i am down $150000 to Benjamine so far... and $40000 to Ivey (see hand below)

Played a huge amount of big pots here are a few of them!!

lol at the railbirds!!

FullTiltPoker Game #1215891375: Table Pantheon (6 max) - $200/$400 - Pot Limit Omaha - 19:21:03 ET - 2006/11/08
Seat 1: Phil Ivey ($19,792), is sitting out
Seat 2: Susisisu ($30,196)
Seat 3: David Benyamine ($58,481.50)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy ($31,596)
Seat 6: CrazyZachary ($28,493)
David Benyamine posts the small blind of $200
Ben Grundy posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [Jc Kh Ah 5s]
CrazyZachary folds
Susisisu calls $400
David Benyamine raises to $1,600
Ben Grundy calls $1,200
Susisisu calls $1,200
*** FLOP *** [Ac Jh Th]
David Benyamine bets $2,400
Ben Grundy raises to $12,000
Susisisu calls $12,000
David Benyamine folds
*** TURN *** [Ac Jh Th] [4h]
Roland de Wolfe (Observer): who is best tournament player in europe
okstate345 (Observer): not u

Ben Grundy has 15 seconds left to act
Ben Grundy checks
Susisisu bets $16,596, and is all in
Ben Grundy calls $16,596
Susisisu shows [Kc 2h Qd 2c]
Ben Grundy shows [Jc Kh Ah 5s]
*** RIVER *** [Ac Jh Th 4h] [6d]
Susisisu shows a straight, Ace high
Ben Grundy shows a flush, Ace high
Ben Grundy wins the pot ($64,390) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $64,392 Rake $2
Board: [Ac Jh Th 4h 6d]
Seat 1: Phil Ivey is sitting out
Seat 2: Susisisu (button) showed [Kc 2h Qd 2c] and lost with a straight, Ace high
Seat 3: David Benyamine (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Ben Grundy (big blind) showed [Jc Kh Ah 5s] and won ($64,390) with a flush, Ace high

A tilt call on the turn maybe!

FullTiltPoker Game #1216056784: Table Pantheon (6 max) - $200/$400 - Pot Limit Omaha - 19:51:55 ET - 2006/11/08
Seat 1: Phil Ivey ($35,782)
Seat 2: Susisisu ($24,694)
Seat 3: David Benyamine ($70,661.50)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy ($74,173)
Seat 6: CrazyZachary ($23,189), is sitting out
Phil Ivey posts the small blind of $200
Susisisu posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [Qh As 2d Ts]
David Benyamine folds
Ben Grundy has 15 seconds left to act
Ben Grundy raises to $1,400
Phil Ivey folds
Susisisu calls $1,000
*** FLOP *** [3c 7d Qs]
Susisisu bets $3,000
Ben Grundy calls $3,000
*** TURN *** [3c 7d Qs] [5s]
Susisisu bets $9,000
det3313 (Observer): no
Ben Grundy calls $9,000
*** RIVER *** [3c 7d Qs 5s] [4d]
Susisisu bets $11,294, and is all in
Ben Grundy calls $11,294
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Susisisu shows [4h Kd Ah 5c] (two pair, Fives and Fours)
Ben Grundy shows [Qh As 2d Ts] (a straight, Five high)
Ben Grundy wins the pot ($49,586) with a straight, Five high
Susisisu is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $49,588 Rake $2
Board: [3c 7d Qs 5s 4d]
Seat 1: Phil Ivey (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Susisisu (big blind) showed [4h Kd Ah 5c] and lost with two pair, Fives and Fours
Seat 3: David Benyamine didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy (button) showed [Qh As 2d Ts] and won ($49,586) with a straight, Five high
Seat 6: CrazyZachary is sitting out

My two biggest PL Omaha pots i have lost have been when i can only lose to a king on the river!!

FullTiltPoker Game #1211386837: Table Pantheon (6 max) - $200/$400 - Pot Limit Omaha - 21:04:52 ET - 2006/11/07
Seat 1: Phil Ivey ($33,986)
Seat 2: Gus Hansen ($18,016)
Seat 3: CrazyZachary ($40,295)
Seat 4: CHUFTY ($34,175)
Seat 5: Ben Grundy ($48,800)
Seat 6: David Benyamine ($21,597)
David Benyamine posts the small blind of $200
Phil Ivey posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [Jd Ts 9h 5s]
Gus Hansen raises to $1,400
CrazyZachary calls $1,400
CHUFTY folds
Ben Grundy calls $1,400
David Benyamine calls $1,200
Phil Ivey calls $1,000
*** FLOP *** [Td Th 6d]
David Benyamine checks
Phil Ivey checks
Gus Hansen has 15 seconds left to act
Gus Hansen checks
CrazyZachary checks
Ben Grundy bets $3,600
David Benyamine folds
Phil Ivey raises to $13,200
Gus Hansen folds
CrazyZachary folds
Ben Grundy has 15 seconds left to act
Ben Grundy calls $9,600
*** TURN *** [Td Th 6d] [9s]
Phil Ivey bets $19,386, and is all in
Ben Grundy calls $19,386
Phil Ivey shows [5d Tc Ks Jc]
Ben Grundy shows [Jd Ts 9h 5s]
*** RIVER *** [Td Th 6d 9s] [Kh]
Phil Ivey shows a full house, Tens full of Kings
Ben Grundy shows a full house, Tens full of Nines
Phil Ivey wins the pot ($72,169) with a full house, Tens full of Kings
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $72,172 Rake $3
Board: [Td Th 6d 9s Kh]
Seat 1: Phil Ivey (big blind) showed [5d Tc Ks Jc] and won ($72,169) with a full house, Tens full of Kings
Seat 2: Gus Hansen folded on the Flop
Seat 3: CrazyZachary folded on the Flop
Seat 4: CHUFTY didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Ben Grundy (button) showed [Jd Ts 9h 5s] and lost with a full house, Tens full of Nines
Seat 6: David Benyamine (small blind) folded on the Flop

Aces are sometimes good :-D

FullTiltPoker Game #1210761286: Table Compton (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 19:12:35 ET - 2006/11/07
Seat 1: profbackwards ($50,798), is sitting out
Seat 3: Mr Poker KDH ($25,779)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy ($17,199.50)
Seat 6: LFISGD ($245,686.50)
Ben Grundy posts the small blind of $200
LFISGD posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [Jd 2s Ad As]
Mr Poker KDH raises to $1,400
Ben Grundy calls $1,200
LFISGD raises to $5,600
Mr Poker KDH raises to $16,000, and is capped
Ben Grundy calls $14,600, and is capped
LFISGD calls $10,400, and is capped
Mr Poker KDH shows [4h Ks Kh 3s]
Ben Grundy shows [Jd 2s Ad As]
LFISGD shows [8s Jh Kd 4s]
*** FLOP *** [2c Qs 2d]
*** TURN *** [2c Qs 2d] [3c]
profbackwards has returned
*** RIVER *** [2c Qs 2d 3c] [Ac]
Mr Poker KDH shows two pair, Kings and Twos
Ben Grundy shows a full house, Aces full of Twos
LFISGD shows a pair of Twos
Ben Grundy wins the pot ($47,999) with a full house, Aces full of Twos
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $48,000 Rake $1
Board: [2c Qs 2d 3c Ac]
Seat 1: profbackwards is sitting out
Seat 3: Mr Poker KDH (button) showed [4h Ks Kh 3s] and lost with two pair, Kings and Twos
Seat 4: Ben Grundy (small blind) showed [Jd 2s Ad As] and won ($47,999) with a full house, Aces full of Twos
Seat 6: LFISGD (big blind) showed [8s Jh Kd 4s] and lost with a pair of Twos

A hand from the capped game!

FullTiltPoker Game #1213567973: Table Gumwood (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 6:40:26 ET - 2006/11/08
Seat 1: profbackwards ($56,196)
Seat 2: Ben Grundy ($15,000)
Seat 3: David Benyamine ($137,970.50)
Seat 4: cmynuts ($41,691)
Seat 6: Gus Hansen ($58,177)
Gus Hansen posts the small blind of $200
profbackwards posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [9s 3s As Ah]
Ben Grundy calls $400
David Benyamine raises to $1,800
cmynuts calls $1,800
Gus Hansen calls $1,600
profbackwards folds
Ben Grundy raises to $9,400
David Benyamine calls $7,600
cmynuts folds
Gus Hansen calls $7,600
*** FLOP *** [5h 4h 2s]
Gus Hansen has 15 seconds left to act
Gus Hansen bets $6,600, and is capped
Ben Grundy calls $5,600, and is all in
David Benyamine calls $6,600, and is capped
Gus Hansen shows [Jc 7s 9h 6h]
Ben Grundy shows [9s 3s As Ah]
David Benyamine shows [Qd Js 8s Qh]
*** TURN *** [5h 4h 2s] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [5h 4h 2s 3c] [Td]
Gus Hansen shows a straight, Seven high
David Benyamine shows a pair of Queens
Gus Hansen wins the side pot ($2,000) with a straight, Seven high
Ben Grundy shows a straight, Five high
Gus Hansen wins the main pot ($47,198) with a straight, Seven high
Ben Grundy is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $49,200 Main pot $47,200. Side pot $2,000. Rake $2
Board: [5h 4h 2s 3c Td]
Seat 1: profbackwards (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Ben Grundy showed [9s 3s As Ah] and lost with a straight, Five high
Seat 3: David Benyamine showed [Qd Js 8s Qh] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: cmynuts (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Gus Hansen (small blind) showed [Jc 7s 9h 6h] and won ($49,198) with a straight, Seven high

and another

FullTiltPoker Game #1213800454: Table Gumwood (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 9:34:37 ET - 2006/11/08
Seat 2: Ben Grundy ($80,510)
Seat 3: David Benyamine ($99,180.50)
Seat 4: profbackwards ($16,000)
David Benyamine posts the small blind of $200
profbackwards posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [7c Qh Tc Ts]
Ben Grundy calls $400
David Benyamine calls $200
profbackwards raises to $1,200
Ben Grundy calls $800
David Benyamine calls $800
*** FLOP *** [Td Jc 4s]
David Benyamine bets $3,600
profbackwards calls $3,600
Ben Grundy raises to $14,800, and is capped
David Benyamine calls $11,200, and is capped
profbackwards calls $11,200, and is capped
Ben Grundy shows [7c Qh Tc Ts]
David Benyamine shows [9s 8s Qd 9h]
profbackwards shows [Kc Kd 3c 4d]
*** TURN *** [Td Jc 4s] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [Td Jc 4s 2s] [7h]
Ben Grundy shows three of a kind, Tens
David Benyamine shows a straight, Jack high
profbackwards shows a pair of Kings
David Benyamine wins the pot ($47,999) with a straight, Jack high
profbackwards is sitting out
profbackwards adds $32,000
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $48,000 Rake $1
Board: [Td Jc 4s 2s 7h]
Seat 2: Ben Grundy (button) showed [7c Qh Tc Ts] and lost with three of a kind, Tens
Seat 3: David Benyamine (small blind) showed [9s 8s Qd 9h] and won ($47,999) with a straight, Jack high
Seat 4: profbackwards (big blind) showed [Kc Kd 3c 4d] and lost with a pair of Kings

**** bokked myself by updating*******

You aren't going to win if you lose thse kind of hands. Dusted off $100000 yuck!

FullTiltPoker Game #1218933975: Table Compton (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 9:59:57 ET - 2006/11/09
Seat 3: Ben Grundy ($20,995)
Seat 4: durrrr ($16,000)
Seat 6: steaming ($19,594)
Ben Grundy posts the small blind of $200
hillbilly226 (Observer): yes
durrrr posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [Td Qh Qc 3c]
steaming raises to $1,400
Ben Grundy calls $1,200
durrrr calls $1,000
*** FLOP *** [3h Qs 7c]
Ben Grundy checks
durrrr bets $3,000
steaming raises to $13,200
Ben Grundy raises to $14,600, and is capped
durrrr folds
steaming calls $1,400, and is capped
Ben Grundy shows [Td Qh Qc 3c]
steaming shows [Ac Ad 8s Kd]
hillbilly226 (Observer): wow
*** TURN *** [3h Qs 7c] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [3h Qs 7c 7h] [Ah]
Ben Grundy shows a full house, Queens full of Sevens
steaming shows a full house, Aces full of Sevens
steaming wins the pot ($36,399) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $36,400 Rake $1
Board: [3h Qs 7c 7h Ah]
Seat 3: Ben Grundy (small blind) showed [Td Qh Qc 3c] and lost with a full house, Queens full of Sevens
Seat 4: durrrr (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: steaming (button) showed [Ac Ad 8s Kd] and won ($36,399) with a full house, Aces full of Sevens

FullTiltPoker Game #1219148124: Table Gumwood (6 max) - $200/$400 - $16,000 Cap Pot Limit Omaha - 11:39:50 ET - 2006/11/09
Seat 1: steaming ($25,399)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy ($16,793.50)
Seat 6: durrrr ($67,739.50)
Ben Grundy posts the small blind of $200
durrrr posts the big blind of $400
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ben Grundy [2c As Ad Jd]
steaming folds
Ben Grundy raises to $1,200
durrrr raises to $3,600
Ben Grundy raises to $10,800
durrrr raises to $16,000, and is capped
Ben Grundy calls $5,200, and is capped
durrrr shows [Kd 9s Kc Ac]
Ben Grundy shows [2c As Ad Jd]
*** FLOP *** [4d 9d 4c]
*** TURN *** [4d 9d 4c] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [4d 9d 4c 6h] [Kh]
durrrr shows a full house, Kings full of Fours
Ben Grundy shows two pair, Aces and Fours
durrrr wins the pot ($31,999) with a full house, Kings full of Fours
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $32,000 Rake $1
Board: [4d 9d 4c 6h Kh]
Seat 1: steaming (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Ben Grundy (small blind) showed [2c As Ad Jd] and lost with two pair, Aces and Fours
Seat 6: durrrr (big blind) showed [Kd 9s Kc Ac] and won ($31,999) with a full house, Kings full of Fours

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Running hot

I've been concentrating almost 100% on PL Omaha for the last couple of weeks, and have stepped up and started playing $50/$100 and $100/$200 PL Omaha on Betfair and Full Tilt. Luckily i've been running very good, and given the size of the games the wins have been very good for the bankroll. I played Ted Forrest and Erik Lindgren Heads Up a couple of times and was ahead against Forrest, but a bit down to Lindgren.

A few hands i have played in these bigger games.

- $100/$200 PLO. Heads Up. We both have $16000. I raise the button to $600 with AdQdJdTc. Opponent calls. Flop 7d8dQh. He checks to me. I bet $1000. He makes it $3500. I call. Turn As. He bets $4500 and i push all in. He calls with QQxx and the river pairs the Ace to give me a better full house. Was quite lucky.... but don't see how the money wasn't going to all go in on that hand.

- $100/$200 PLO. 3 handed. I have $12000 both opponents have $18000. I call a button raise in the BB with 3s4s5h6h. Flop 2h5h8c giving me a wrap and a small flush draw. I check. button bets $1500. I reraise the pot and he puts me all in. I call. He has 28KK and no flush draw. Which i was happy to see. Turn was a 3 and he missed his 4 cards on the river.

- $50/$100 PLO. 5 handed. I have $19500. Opponent in this hand $12000. I reraised pre to $1500 with JJQQ ds. Flop AK4 with no flush draw. I bet $2000. Opponent called. Turn the dream card, the T bringing a club flush draw. I bet $4000 and he moved all in the TJQK with the flush draw which came on the river.

I am playing a bit tighter in these games as opposed to my normal games. The size of the preflop raises are so big, that to put a reraise in is often over $2000 preflop. Not sure how long i will stay at these levels. If i start running or playing bad then i'll drop back down to my normal games.

Decided against going to Amsterdam for the Masterclassics. I've had such a good couple of weeks that i'm happy to stay home, and also i go to Singapore next Monday for the Betfair Asian Poker Tour which now has well over 300 confirmed entries.